投機泡沫形成的原因有二：投機者過度貪婪的心理，和鬥儍理論(Greater Fools Theory)。因此，投機泡沫價格雖然升至極不合理的水平，盲目的投機者相信會有更大的傻瓜接火棒，便繼續痴痴迷迷地炒下去，直至忽然醒覺到音樂停止了，泡沫爆破，盲目的投機者便一網成擒。

美股這個超級巨型投機泡沫，是典型的音樂椅遊戲，音樂隨時隨刻可以突然停止。詳細分析見拙稿《狼來了：美國甚麼時候破產?》(17Dec2020) https://www.wavemaster.hk/a/117318-cht

昨晚道指最高30323，差2點便可追平歷史高位30325。收市30303，升148點，距離歷史高位22點。從圖表分析，道指成交逐漸萎縮，是典型的見頂形態「上升楔形」。見附圖一。

根據美國波浪大師柏徹特免費網站提供的資料，全球負債佔GDP的比率已升至破紀錄的365％。這些負債都是不能償還的壞債務，當這個債務泡沫爆破的時候，全球都會被美國拖累，陷入大衰退。見附圖二和附錄。

比特幣(Bitcoin)是没有內在價值(Intrinsic Value)的商品，2017年狂升暴跌，是本世紀最大的投機泡沫。比特幣昨日創新高23777美元，但沒有改變以(b)浪反彈見頂的趨勢。詳細分析見拙稿《比特幣(b)浪反彈可能見頂》(8Dec2020) https://www.wavemaster.hk/a/117173-cht

比特幣在2017年底見頂回落的走勢十分恐怖，盲目投機者一網成擒，血流成河。見附圖三。

總結，美國政府和聯儲局合作炮制了美股史無前例的巨型泡沫，一旦爆破，您有信心及時沽貨離場，全身而退嗎？您肯定走得切嗎？今晚美股四重結算，好戲連場矣。

相關評論:《美國長期量寬已到玩火邊緣》(16Dec2020) https://www.wavemaster.hk/a/117306-cht

股神巴菲特軍師芒格警告：「我們正處於一片未知的領域。沒有一個國家能長期不斷印鈔而不遇到甚麼麻煩，我們正在玩火的邊緣。」

免責聲明：以上分析，只供參考，投資買賣，必須審慎。

附錄 : Global Tipping Point: “Good” Debt Vs. “Bad” Debt (Which is Winning?)
All major U.S. economic depressions were “set off” by this single factor
https://elliottwave.com/Economy/Global-Tipping-Point-Good-Debt-Vs-Bad-Debt-Which-is-Winning

Isn't all debt "bad"?

Well, in a word, no.

Broadly speaking, there are two types of debt. One of them actually adds value to the economy if handled in the right way, so you might call this a "good" form of debt. However, there's another type of debt (or credit) which hurts the economy.

A classic quote from an Elliott Wave Theorist provides insight:

Self-liquidating credit is credit that is paid back, with interest, in a moderately short time from production. Production facilitated by the loan generates the financial return that makes repayment possible. It adds value to the economy.

Non-self-liquidating credit is not tied to production and tends to stay in the system. When financial institutions lend for consumer purchases such as cars, boats or homes, or for speculations such as the purchase of stock certificates, no production effort is tied to the loan. Interest payments on such loans stress some other source of income... Such lending is almost always counter-productive; it adds costs to the economy, not value.

With that in mind, our December Global Market Perspective mentions "non-self-liquidating" debt as it shows this chart and says:

Total global debt has risen dramatically this year and [is expected] to exceed an eye-watering $277 trillion by the end of 2020, [which] will equate to around 365% of global Gross Domestic Product, up from 320% at the end of 2019.

[The] increase in private sector debt is not healthy, self-liquidating debt which, for example, would come from borrowing to invest in a new factory, the debt being paid off via the increased production. No, this is unhealthy, non-self-liquidating debt which is being added and the same is true for U.S. households' binge on mortgage debt.

It's important to know about this big surge of non-self-liquidating debt in the global financial system because it strongly suggests that the eventual deflation of this debt will be devastating.

You see, bank credit expert Hamilton Bolton conducted a study of major depressions in the U.S. and said (Conquer the Crash, 2002):

All were set off by a deflation of excess credit... Deflation of non-self-liquidating credit usually produces the greater slumps.

And, considering the size of the current debt bubble, the next "slump" may be one for the history books.